Indigenous groups have always fairly reliably voted KMT. The DPP tends to have much more progressive policies and portray themselves as more concerned about the indigenous struggle. But the KMT being the direct successor of the authoritarian government that ruled Taiwan for decades tends to have much deeper local structures and have thus been present in indigenous territories much more/for much longer.

(Also portraying the parties as Chinese or Taiwanese nationalists probably is a bit strong, as they’ve both moved towards more moderate, pro-status quo positions, although from different ends of the spectrum)

No, that’s not my argument. Reread my post.

The NED has been funding some NGOs for decades, so these groups, which prior to the sunflower movement mostly didn’t even exist and didn’t have an organizational structure to direct funds to in the first place surely were funded by them as well. Some absolutely impeccable and waterproof logic there.

The DPP wasn’t even a very instrumental actor in the sunflower movement. It was largely student led and of those people that participated in it that went into politics, most went to different smaller parties. I lived in the country during the time that happened and to claim that foreign interference played any meaningful role is just absurd on its face. Maybe don’t try patronizing entire populaces from afar as if they somehow weren’t able to make their own decisions and come to their own conclusions.

Sure, buddy…

“Next few decades” seems way off. I think most analysts have it more at like within in a decade.

Edit: https://news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027-sees-no-near-term-intent-to-invade

Well they basically tried that already. They tried to strike up a trade agreement with the then ruling conservative power that would give China significant economic and thus political influence. But the Taiwanese people were smart enough to see through that. There was a popular uprising, the legislative building got occupied by student protestors, the agreement was retracted and the then president lost the next election in a landslide.